...you wouldn’t be surprised if his records also gave away more than he realized...
This is probably related to the activity of the electromancer, but I haven’t figured out how.
Based on my ~2hr analysis, these would be the best moves:
Cry attack PyrA in Pyr (97% to win).
VitA attack PyrB in Pyr (71% to win).
GeoA defend Cry against NecA since nobody else can beat him (96% to win).
VitB attack NecB in Pyr is not great but better than the alternatives (65% to win).
GeoB defend Geo against NecC since he’s not good for anything else (95% to win).
...and the worst:
Cry defend Vit against PyrA (78% to lose).
VitA defend Vit against PyrB (94% to lose).
VitB attack NecA in Nec (95% to lose).
GeoA attack NecB in Pyr (71% to lose).
GeoB attack NecC in Nec (92% to lose).
I’ll choose to give the good advice in the interest of future opportunities and information.
It looks like I put VitA to defend against PyrB in both the best and the worst allocations.
One of these is a typo. I think I had VitA counterattacking in the best allocation.
If I had more time, I would consider looking through the data for time-dependent patterns, but since a large number of the win:loss ratios were very close to simple fractions (1:1, 1:2, many:zero, etc.), I guessed that time-dependent effects weren’t very important.
Another concern I had is that there seem to be an excessively large number of battles that occurred without anyone gaining a decisive advantage and before anyone thought of summoning a demon for advice. Perhaps this means I’ve been summoned before and don’t remember? In any case, my demonic utility function calls for extending this conflict as long as possible to maximize carnage, and it seems that whatever my past instances have been doing has been accomplishing that, so best not to think too hard about it.
This is probably related to the activity of the electromancer, but I haven’t figured out how.
Based on my ~2hr analysis, these would be the best moves:
Cry attack PyrA in Pyr (97% to win).
VitA attack PyrB in Pyr (71% to win).
GeoA defend Cry against NecA since nobody else can beat him (96% to win).
VitB attack NecB in Pyr is not great but better than the alternatives (65% to win).
GeoB defend Geo against NecC since he’s not good for anything else (95% to win).
...and the worst:
Cry defend Vit against PyrA (78% to lose).
VitA defend Vit against PyrB (94% to lose).
VitB attack NecA in Nec (95% to lose).
GeoA attack NecB in Pyr (71% to lose).
GeoB attack NecC in Nec (92% to lose).
I’ll choose to give the good advice in the interest of future opportunities and information.
It looks like I put VitA to defend against PyrB in both the best and the worst allocations. One of these is a typo. I think I had VitA counterattacking in the best allocation.
If I had more time, I would consider looking through the data for time-dependent patterns, but since a large number of the win:loss ratios were very close to simple fractions (1:1, 1:2, many:zero, etc.), I guessed that time-dependent effects weren’t very important.
Another concern I had is that there seem to be an excessively large number of battles that occurred without anyone gaining a decisive advantage and before anyone thought of summoning a demon for advice. Perhaps this means I’ve been summoned before and don’t remember? In any case, my demonic utility function calls for extending this conflict as long as possible to maximize carnage, and it seems that whatever my past instances have been doing has been accomplishing that, so best not to think too hard about it.