I find it a bit strange to list these things alongside HIE, because they seem obviously much weaker to me. (With the possible exception of “public epistemics improving”, that could be super important, but also not going to happen in a general/powerful form without widespread adoption of HIE?)
Oh, I hadn’t realized by HIE you had in mind something that would apply to most people. I assumed you meant something that SOME people do, such that there is a tiny subpopulation of super genius kids somewhere. Bringing the entire world up by +3 SDs of IQ would be a much bigger change, indeed. It also is way less likely to happen anytime soon and is almost impossible for it to happen sooner than, say, 30 years from now. Heck it’s still very unlikely to happen even 60 years from now even if we assume that there’s a global hardcore ban on AI development that actually manages to prevent AI development for 100 years. Like, are you imagining that governments will mandate this tech? Or are you imagining that the culture will gradually shift from ‘most people regard this as weird and abhorrent’ to ‘most people do it themselves’? How gradually are we talking? Seems like it would be two generations at a minimum, i.e. only after the initial batch of kids have reached adulthood would the culture have shifted that much, and so that means it’ll be at minimum 40ish years from now before we could get 3SDs even if everything moved extremely quickly.
I don’t see why anywhere near the majority of enhanced people would want to race for ASI, even assuming we can’t also substantially enhance Wisdom? But I agree some of the enhanced people could end up wanting to do this, and that could be an issue, though the majority of enhanced people would probably want to stop them.
It sounds like you are saying enhanced humans would be relatively less likely to race for ASI than unenhanced humans? But today, isn’t there a positive correlation between IQ and racing-for-ASI? Like, aren’t a bunch of the people at Anthropic and OpenAI really high-IQ? I do agree that in some sense in the limit of perfect intelligence they’d converge to true beliefs about the AI situation including the truth that it’s very dangerous. But I think it’s super unclear whether boosting IQ on the current margin is even going to have a positive effect, much less a strong positive effect of the sort that’s clearly more valuable than all the other things I mentioned like AI for epistemics.
Oh, I hadn’t realized by HIE you had in mind something that would apply to most people. I assumed you meant something that SOME people do, such that there is a tiny subpopulation of super genius kids somewhere. Bringing the entire world up by +3 SDs of IQ would be a much bigger change, indeed. It also is way less likely to happen anytime soon and is almost impossible for it to happen sooner than, say, 30 years from now. Heck it’s still very unlikely to happen even 60 years from now even if we assume that there’s a global hardcore ban on AI development that actually manages to prevent AI development for 100 years. Like, are you imagining that governments will mandate this tech? Or are you imagining that the culture will gradually shift from ‘most people regard this as weird and abhorrent’ to ‘most people do it themselves’? How gradually are we talking? Seems like it would be two generations at a minimum, i.e. only after the initial batch of kids have reached adulthood would the culture have shifted that much, and so that means it’ll be at minimum 40ish years from now before we could get 3SDs even if everything moved extremely quickly.
It sounds like you are saying enhanced humans would be relatively less likely to race for ASI than unenhanced humans? But today, isn’t there a positive correlation between IQ and racing-for-ASI? Like, aren’t a bunch of the people at Anthropic and OpenAI really high-IQ? I do agree that in some sense in the limit of perfect intelligence they’d converge to true beliefs about the AI situation including the truth that it’s very dangerous. But I think it’s super unclear whether boosting IQ on the current margin is even going to have a positive effect, much less a strong positive effect of the sort that’s clearly more valuable than all the other things I mentioned like AI for epistemics.