I’m not sure the financial loss would be more than 2x bigger than the stock market crash coming from all the priced-in growth being stopped in Plan A
I think it should be if people were well-calibrated? (Which is more likely in worlds where people are taking things seriously enough for these proposals.)
Delaying ~infinity growth by 100 years seems more than twice as bad as delaying ~infinity growth for 10 years. With exponential discounting, the only way I can currently see for this to be false (though there’s probably other ways) is if you think that most of the value of “~infinity growth now” would already have been lost by moving to “~infinity growth in 10 years”. But that doesn’t seem consistent with how low real interest rates are. (They tend to value stuff in 10 years at more than half as much as stuff now.)
And plan A looks better than “singularity in 10 years” by any very time-sensitive financial measure, since you get lots of growth in the intermediate 10 years too.
Yes, that’s fair. But given that Plan A starts with a temporary full shutdown, and it will be generally hard to know what pace of progress will be allowed later, I think markets will probably initially think that there is substantial chance that the temporary pause won’t really be lifted or progress will be reversed in other ways. (E.g. I don’t expect markets to be enthusiastic about the proposal to put all data centers in Mongolia, under the threat of Chinese bombing.) So I think the initial stock market crash at the announcement of Plan A will still be huge—I would now guess between 30% and 50% as big as in the case of full dismantling of the compute supply chain.
I think one of the main political barriers to starting either the compute dismantling or Plan A is the unpopular initial crash and the corresponding industry outcry, and that will comparably be huge in both cases.
But given that Plan A starts with a temporary full shutdown, and it will be generally hard to know what pace of progress will be allowed later, I think markets will probably initially think that there is substantial chance that the temporary pause won’t really be lifted or progress will be reversed in other ways.
Sure. Though conversely, there should also be a big probability that the pause will be immimently lifted and progress will keep going just as before. Whereas there’s much less hope of that if there’s an announcement to destroy the compute supply chain.
I suppose that if the initial announcement comes with a 30% probability that all compute will be destroyed, then the crash should probably be at least 30% as large as a definite announcement that the compute will be destroyed? Though 30% on that given the initial pause seems maybe 2x too high to me or something.
I think it should be if people were well-calibrated? (Which is more likely in worlds where people are taking things seriously enough for these proposals.)
Delaying ~infinity growth by 100 years seems more than twice as bad as delaying ~infinity growth for 10 years. With exponential discounting, the only way I can currently see for this to be false (though there’s probably other ways) is if you think that most of the value of “~infinity growth now” would already have been lost by moving to “~infinity growth in 10 years”. But that doesn’t seem consistent with how low real interest rates are. (They tend to value stuff in 10 years at more than half as much as stuff now.)
And plan A looks better than “singularity in 10 years” by any very time-sensitive financial measure, since you get lots of growth in the intermediate 10 years too.
Yes, that’s fair. But given that Plan A starts with a temporary full shutdown, and it will be generally hard to know what pace of progress will be allowed later, I think markets will probably initially think that there is substantial chance that the temporary pause won’t really be lifted or progress will be reversed in other ways. (E.g. I don’t expect markets to be enthusiastic about the proposal to put all data centers in Mongolia, under the threat of Chinese bombing.) So I think the initial stock market crash at the announcement of Plan A will still be huge—I would now guess between 30% and 50% as big as in the case of full dismantling of the compute supply chain.
I think one of the main political barriers to starting either the compute dismantling or Plan A is the unpopular initial crash and the corresponding industry outcry, and that will comparably be huge in both cases.
Sure. Though conversely, there should also be a big probability that the pause will be immimently lifted and progress will keep going just as before. Whereas there’s much less hope of that if there’s an announcement to destroy the compute supply chain.
I suppose that if the initial announcement comes with a 30% probability that all compute will be destroyed, then the crash should probably be at least 30% as large as a definite announcement that the compute will be destroyed? Though 30% on that given the initial pause seems maybe 2x too high to me or something.