But given that Plan A starts with a temporary full shutdown, and it will be generally hard to know what pace of progress will be allowed later, I think markets will probably initially think that there is substantial chance that the temporary pause won’t really be lifted or progress will be reversed in other ways.
Sure. Though conversely, there should also be a big probability that the pause will be immimently lifted and progress will keep going just as before. Whereas there’s much less hope of that if there’s an announcement to destroy the compute supply chain.
I suppose that if the initial announcement comes with a 30% probability that all compute will be destroyed, then the crash should probably be at least 30% as large as a definite announcement that the compute will be destroyed? Though 30% on that given the initial pause seems maybe 2x too high to me or something.
Sure. Though conversely, there should also be a big probability that the pause will be immimently lifted and progress will keep going just as before. Whereas there’s much less hope of that if there’s an announcement to destroy the compute supply chain.
I suppose that if the initial announcement comes with a 30% probability that all compute will be destroyed, then the crash should probably be at least 30% as large as a definite announcement that the compute will be destroyed? Though 30% on that given the initial pause seems maybe 2x too high to me or something.