The title of the section is “The Apocalyptic Arrival of Truth on Earth.” The lie detectors are there as an example of a social technology that could be invented by AIs that would have big consequences for society. The point of the 2037 section is to try to briefly touch on how there won’t just be more material abundance (more factories, more housing, cheaper cars, etc.) but also new social technologies, new ideologies, new political fault lines, etc. None of this stuff is particularly load-bearing for whether Plan A is a good idea or not; we included it because we were writing a concrete scenario and it seemed like this sort of societal transformation would probably be a consequence of all that AI-powered research etc., and so it seemed like we should write about it.
I currently think that lie detectors of the sort described are maybe like 2/3rds likely in the sort of scenario described (i.e. pause at top human expert AI) and closer to like 95% likely with superintelligence.
The title of the section is “The Apocalyptic Arrival of Truth on Earth.” The lie detectors are there as an example of a social technology that could be invented by AIs that would have big consequences for society. The point of the 2037 section is to try to briefly touch on how there won’t just be more material abundance (more factories, more housing, cheaper cars, etc.) but also new social technologies, new ideologies, new political fault lines, etc. None of this stuff is particularly load-bearing for whether Plan A is a good idea or not; we included it because we were writing a concrete scenario and it seemed like this sort of societal transformation would probably be a consequence of all that AI-powered research etc., and so it seemed like we should write about it.
I currently think that lie detectors of the sort described are maybe like 2/3rds likely in the sort of scenario described (i.e. pause at top human expert AI) and closer to like 95% likely with superintelligence.