I, along with Claude Opus 4.6, hope that this project doesn’t bring fruit until 2029. Additionally, Kokotajlo’s most recent update implies that he would make a roughly 2:1 bet on AC emerging by January 2029, a roughly 1:1 bet on the SC by Jan 2029 and that p(ASI by 2029) is ~37%. Claude doesn’t believe in Musk’s success even by Jan 2030, when p(ASI|Kokotajlo’s estimates) is ~48%. So I think that it won’t accelerate the timelines THAT much… unless Taiwan is destroyed by a potential Chinese invasion.
I, along with Claude Opus 4.6, hope that this project doesn’t bring fruit until 2029. Additionally, Kokotajlo’s most recent update implies that he would make a roughly 2:1 bet on AC emerging by January 2029, a roughly 1:1 bet on the SC by Jan 2029 and that p(ASI by 2029) is ~37%. Claude doesn’t believe in Musk’s success even by Jan 2030, when p(ASI|Kokotajlo’s estimates) is ~48%. So I think that it won’t accelerate the timelines THAT much… unless Taiwan is destroyed by a potential Chinese invasion.