Thanks, this is highly informative and useful as a definitive explainer of what happened and why.
I do disagree with one point, which is I don’t think there was any signal at all when SBF said things were fine on various forums in various ways. ~100% of the time that an exchange or fund or bank that is vulnerable to runs gets in trouble, the CEO or some spokesperson comes out to say everything is fine. It happens when things are fine and when things are not fine. There’s just no information there, in my view. It’s not especially polarizing even, because I think SBF would say it in situations where there were significant problems but probably recoverable.
Thanks, this is highly informative and useful as a definitive explainer of what happened and why.
I do disagree with one point, which is I don’t think there was any signal at all when SBF said things were fine on various forums in various ways. ~100% of the time that an exchange or fund or bank that is vulnerable to runs gets in trouble, the CEO or some spokesperson comes out to say everything is fine. It happens when things are fine and when things are not fine. There’s just no information there, in my view. It’s not especially polarizing even, because I think SBF would say it in situations where there were significant problems but probably recoverable.