I think that misuses of FDT happen because in certain cases FDT behaves like “magic” (i.e. pretty counterintuitive), “magic” violates “mundane rules”, so it’s possible to forget “mundane” things like “to make decision you should set probability distribution over relevant possibilities”.
I think the other thing is that people get stuck in “game theory hypothetical brain” and start acting as if perfect predictors and timeless agents are actually representative of the real world. They take the wrong things from the dilemmas and extrapolate them out into reality.
I think that misuses of FDT happen because in certain cases FDT behaves like “magic” (i.e. pretty counterintuitive), “magic” violates “mundane rules”, so it’s possible to forget “mundane” things like “to make decision you should set probability distribution over relevant possibilities”.
I think the other thing is that people get stuck in “game theory hypothetical brain” and start acting as if perfect predictors and timeless agents are actually representative of the real world. They take the wrong things from the dilemmas and extrapolate them out into reality.