But I rarely see any discussion of whether Taiwan could escalate into a Mutually Assured Destruction dynamic
Not at all an expert either. But MAD doesn’t just assume nukes but also assumes that each side is able to launch on warning/under attack, or to launch a second strike. The former is harder, compared to US-Russia, because of the physical proximity. The latter disadvantages Taiwan because of its smaller land mass and much more limited navy. So maybe experts have very basic reasons to question the viability of MAD?
Not at all an expert either. But MAD doesn’t just assume nukes but also assumes that each side is able to launch on warning/under attack, or to launch a second strike. The former is harder, compared to US-Russia, because of the physical proximity. The latter disadvantages Taiwan because of its smaller land mass and much more limited navy. So maybe experts have very basic reasons to question the viability of MAD?