This is an analysis of the Six Day War (Egypt vs. Israel, 1967)-- the Israelis were interested in how Egypt managed a surprise attack, and it turned out that too many Israelis believed that the Egyptians would only attack if they had rockets which could reach deep into Israel.
I believe they are actually talking about the Yom Kippur War of 1973. The Six Day War was a (highly successful) Israeli strike.
The Six Day War is also an interesting example of a first strike. The Egyptians had hundreds of expensive fighters but did not spend the money to build bombproof hangers, which I can only assume would have been comparitivly very cheap, needing only concrete. As a result, they took >99% losses within half an hour.
Is not spending a small amount of resources on something mundane but vital a specific cognative bias?
That’s hard to say. There might be a lot of precautions which are plausible and individually cheap, but all of them together are expensive. Some of the precautions might even be incompatible with each other.
I think that you’d need to have ways to know in advance which precautions are most important.
This being said, I really wish US airlines had reinforced cockpit doors before 9/11.
I really wish US airlines had reinforced cockpit doors before 9/11
Wouldn’t have helped. Before 9/11 the standard operating procedure—that is, officially approved strategy taught to pilots—was to cooperate with the hijackers, get the plane on the ground, negotiate from there.
I believe they are actually talking about the Yom Kippur War of 1973. The Six Day War was a (highly successful) Israeli strike.
The Six Day War is also an interesting example of a first strike. The Egyptians had hundreds of expensive fighters but did not spend the money to build bombproof hangers, which I can only assume would have been comparitivly very cheap, needing only concrete. As a result, they took >99% losses within half an hour.
Is not spending a small amount of resources on something mundane but vital a specific cognative bias?
That’s hard to say. There might be a lot of precautions which are plausible and individually cheap, but all of them together are expensive. Some of the precautions might even be incompatible with each other.
I think that you’d need to have ways to know in advance which precautions are most important.
This being said, I really wish US airlines had reinforced cockpit doors before 9/11.
Wouldn’t have helped. Before 9/11 the standard operating procedure—that is, officially approved strategy taught to pilots—was to cooperate with the hijackers, get the plane on the ground, negotiate from there.
Corrected. Thanks.