What you know that ain’t so

This is an anal­y­sis of the Yom Kip­pur war (Egypt vs. Is­rael, 1973)-- the Is­raelis were in­ter­ested in how Egypt man­aged a sur­prise at­tack, and it turned out that too many Is­raelis be­lieved that the Egyp­ti­ans would only at­tack if they had rock­ets which could reach deep into Is­rael. The Egyp­ti­ans didn’t have those rock­ets, so the Is­raeli gov­ern­ment ig­nored ev­i­dence that the Egyp­ti­ans were mass­ing mil­i­tary forces on the bor­der.

The rest of the ar­ti­cle is anal­y­sis of the re­cent Is­raeli elec­tion, but to put it mildly, an elec­tion has much less in the way of well-defined fac­tors than a sur­prise mil­i­tary at­tack, so it’s much harder to say whether any ex­pla­na­tion is cor­rect.

I’m sure there are many ex­am­ples of plau­si­ble the­o­ries keep­ing peo­ple from get­ting to the cor­rect ex­pla­na­tion for a long time. Any sug­ges­tions? Also, is there a stan­dard name for this mis­take?