I augmented the code a bit to get the mean and stddev of the SELECTIVE events to illustrate how far out of distribution the UNselective event would predictably be...
$ ./selection_events.py What skill profile over the SELECTIVE events? N = 98 // Stddev = 0.20449118563464222 // mean = 0.6569978446874036 What is the average skill in THE UNSELECTIVE event 0.1496967789384321
I augmented the code a bit to get the mean and stddev of the SELECTIVE events to illustrate how far out of distribution the UNselective event would predictably be...
$ ./selection_events.py
What skill profile over the SELECTIVE events?
N = 98 // Stddev = 0.20449118563464222 // mean = 0.6569978446874036
What is the average skill in THE UNSELECTIVE event
0.1496967789384321
Two and a half standard deviations worse!