As others said, this is the classic Doomsday Argument, and it’s a misapplication of probability, since the calculation lacks predictability: your estimate always yields the same doomsday prediction regardless of whether it is made by Adam and Eve, by us, or by a meta-galactic civilization a billion years from now.
As others said, this is the classic Doomsday Argument, and it’s a misapplication of probability, since the calculation lacks predictability: your estimate always yields the same doomsday prediction regardless of whether it is made by Adam and Eve, by us, or by a meta-galactic civilization a billion years from now.