This market seems valuable, but it depends on what you’re using it for. “Experts can’t predict what this politician is going to do” is useful information. Also it seems like a lot of voters were assuming the chance of Trump implementing major tariffs was tiny, so updating toward 50% would have helped them.
Indeed: the background probability of a sane leader launching an unprovoked trade war on the rest of the world is near zero. 10% would be unsettling, 30% would be (and was!) alarming.
This market seems valuable, but it depends on what you’re using it for. “Experts can’t predict what this politician is going to do” is useful information. Also it seems like a lot of voters were assuming the chance of Trump implementing major tariffs was tiny, so updating toward 50% would have helped them.
Indeed: the background probability of a sane leader launching an unprovoked trade war on the rest of the world is near zero. 10% would be unsettling, 30% would be (and was!) alarming.