p.s. that’s a lot of predictions :)
How many would you have thought gwern had?
I found this question puzzling, and difficult to answer (I’m sleep deprived). Funny joke if you were sneakily trying to get me to make a prediction.
Unfortunately I’m pretty well anchored now.
I’d expect LW-haunters who decide to make predictions at PB.com to make 15 on the first day and 10 in the next year (with a mode of 0).
p.s. that’s a lot of predictions :)
How many would you have thought gwern had?
I found this question puzzling, and difficult to answer (I’m sleep deprived). Funny joke if you were sneakily trying to get me to make a prediction.
Unfortunately I’m pretty well anchored now.
I’d expect LW-haunters who decide to make predictions at PB.com to make 15 on the first day and 10 in the next year (with a mode of 0).