OK, fair. Well, as I always say these days, quite a lot of my views flow naturally from my AGI timelines. It’s reasonable to be skeptical that AGI is coming in about 4 years, but once you buy that premise, basically everything else I believe becomes pretty plausible. In particular, if you think AGI is coming in 2027, it probably seems pretty plausible that humanity will be unprepared & more likely than not that things will go very badly. Would you agree?
I’m happy to define it more specifically—e.g. if you have time, check out What 2026 Looks Like and then imagine that in 2027 the chatbots finally become superhuman at all relevant intellectual domains (including agency / goal-directedness / coherence) whereas before they had been superhuman in some but subhuman in others. That’s the sort of scenario I think is likely. It’s a further question whether or not the AGIs would be aligned, to be fair. But much has been written on that topic as well.
OK, fair. Well, as I always say these days, quite a lot of my views flow naturally from my AGI timelines. It’s reasonable to be skeptical that AGI is coming in about 4 years, but once you buy that premise, basically everything else I believe becomes pretty plausible. In particular, if you think AGI is coming in 2027, it probably seems pretty plausible that humanity will be unprepared & more likely than not that things will go very badly. Would you agree?
I’m happy to define it more specifically—e.g. if you have time, check out What 2026 Looks Like and then imagine that in 2027 the chatbots finally become superhuman at all relevant intellectual domains (including agency / goal-directedness / coherence) whereas before they had been superhuman in some but subhuman in others. That’s the sort of scenario I think is likely. It’s a further question whether or not the AGIs would be aligned, to be fair. But much has been written on that topic as well.