2 is close enough. Extrapolating the results of safe tests to unsafe settings requires a level of theoretical competence we don’t currently have. Steve Brynes just made a great post that is somewhat related, I endorse everything in that post.
Thanks. I’ll reread you post again in light of that. I guess I was always assuming that doing that was going to become necessary, as it is in every field, and as is particularly challenging to do safely in safety engineering fields. Also that we were currently only, say O(10%) of the way through the process. So I’m unsurprised we can’t see much of the route yet — but we can see more of it than we could, say, 5 years ago, and usually we do figure these things out eventually. What concerns me isn’t that this is impossible, but that I don’t think we’re on track to be done in another, say, 5 years, that rushing is is a great way to cause 3.a., and it’s unclear how long we have left.
I’ll also take a look at Steve Bryrnes post you link.
2 is close enough. Extrapolating the results of safe tests to unsafe settings requires a level of theoretical competence we don’t currently have. Steve Brynes just made a great post that is somewhat related, I endorse everything in that post.
Thanks. I’ll reread you post again in light of that. I guess I was always assuming that doing that was going to become necessary, as it is in every field, and as is particularly challenging to do safely in safety engineering fields. Also that we were currently only, say O(10%) of the way through the process. So I’m unsurprised we can’t see much of the route yet — but we can see more of it than we could, say, 5 years ago, and usually we do figure these things out eventually. What concerns me isn’t that this is impossible, but that I don’t think we’re on track to be done in another, say, 5 years, that rushing is is a great way to cause 3.a., and it’s unclear how long we have left.
I’ll also take a look at Steve Bryrnes post you link.