Anders Sandberg could tell us what fraction of the reachable universe is being lost per minute, which would tell us how much more surety it would need to expect to gain by waiting another minute before acting.
From Ord (2021):
Each year the affectable universe will only shrink in volume by about one part in 5 billion.
So, since there are about 5e5 minutes in a year, you lose about 1 part in 5e5 * 5e9 = 3e15 every minute.
From Ord (2021):
So, since there are about 5e5 minutes in a year, you lose about 1 part in 5e5 * 5e9 = 3e15 every minute.