I think the question on P(God) is a lot more difficult to answer than the surveyors realize. We’re all cognizant of the possibility of the known universe being a simulation, a machine constructed by some intelligent entity in a higher level universe*. Some of us consider the probability of the scenario Simulation to be high, if not absolute for reasons I wont go into here.
Many of us are define “natural” as “happened in reality”, thus they define “supernatural” as “did not happen”. Those may rightfully assign literal 0 to P(God), that is a statement as sure as the axioms of the logic you formulate it in. The rest of us, though, those of us who believe that all words should by virtue of their existence have a use, have to think a bit more. If “Supernatural” means anything, I’d be surprised if anyone here bears a definition that does not render Simulation equivalent to the scenario God as God was defined in the survey.
To me, “Supernatural”, if you’re going to use it, could only mean “so mysterious as to be beyond being reasoned about or modelled”. The work of the simulator’s hand would definitely qualify as such, and so too would the simulator itself. Lo, a supernatural creator. God is reality.
FWIW, this line of reasoning comes up pretty regularly (especially in response to that survey question), so if the surveyors fail to realize the associated difficulties, it’s not through failure to have it pointed out. I suspect they realize it just fine.
For my own part, I just skip questions that I don’t know how to answer and move on.
Incidentally, LW has a preferred local understanding of “supernatural,” which derives from this post. That’s not to say everyone here thinks it’s a good definition—I don’t, for example—but it’s probably the best Schelling point to use when a shared understanding is important.
FWIW, this line of reasoning comes up pretty regularly (especially in response to that survey question), so if the surveyors fail to realize the associated difficulties, it’s not through failure to have it pointed out. I suspect they realize it just fine.
Continuing to complain about it may still have an effect though. I personally think they should post the definition they’re using for “supernatural” in the description for the question, maybe right below their current description.
Incidentally, LW has a preferred local understanding of “supernatural,” which derives from this post.
Ah. Hardly incidental. I wish I’d known about that. I hold that the definition (if it belongs to anyone at all) belongs to those who self-identify as believers in the supernatural, this form feels far more like what I’d expect to find in their heads. Great clumbering atomic concepts that can’t be broken down to the stuff of ordinary reasoning.
For my own part, I try to avoid using words whose definitions are saliently ambiguous, and when I am listening to others do so I try as well as I can to understand what they mean to convey by using the phrase, and otherwise try to avoid getting too tangled up in questions of what ambiguous phrases really mean.
When it comes to “supernatural”… the people I listen to who (claim to) believe in the supernatural mostly just seem to be referring to events that aren’t explicable by or are inconsistent with modern scientific consensus beliefs. That is, it seems to be an epistemological category, not an ontological one.
And while it’s certainly possible to get into a whole discussion of whether any given event falls in that category or not, on a broader level it doesn’t matter much to the broader question of whether such events can occur. I mean, of course such events occur with regularity, since the modern scientific consensus at any given moment is always an incomplete (and to a lesser extent outright inaccurate) and evolving model of reality. I agree with that much completely.
They don’t, as far as I can tell, have any consistent beliefs one way or the other about whether ontologically basic mental entities are at the core of those events. For example, I have several friends who (claim to) believe that the spirits of dead people can manifest themselves physically in various contexts, but they have no more of a notion of whether those spirits are ontologically basic mental entities than I have of the mineral composition of Ceres.
Of course, there’s also a subset of those folks who argue that since scientific consensus is incomplete/inaccurate, they’re allowed to hold on to whatever explanations they’re most comfortable/familiar with, which frequently includes traditional occult legends and memes from various cultures. But that’s a fallacy of reasoning that seems entirely orthogonal to the question of what they mean by “supernatural.”
the people I listen to who (claim to) believe in the supernatural mostly just seem to be referring to events that aren’t explicable by or are inconsistent with modern scientific consensus beliefs.
I somehow doubt that if it was suddenly discovered that cigarette smoking was good for your health, many people would refer to that as supernatural, even though that would be inconsistent with modern scientific consensus beliefs.
The rest of us, though, those of us who believe that all words should by virtue of their existence have a use
Supernatural under a definition which implies it cannot exist still has a use. The word is a useful label to talk about people’s beliefs; of course it’s possible to believe in things which cannot exist.
I think the question on P(God) is a lot more difficult to answer than the surveyors realize. We’re all cognizant of the possibility of the known universe being a simulation, a machine constructed by some intelligent entity in a higher level universe*. Some of us consider the probability of the scenario Simulation to be high, if not absolute for reasons I wont go into here.
Many of us are define “natural” as “happened in reality”, thus they define “supernatural” as “did not happen”. Those may rightfully assign literal 0 to P(God), that is a statement as sure as the axioms of the logic you formulate it in. The rest of us, though, those of us who believe that all words should by virtue of their existence have a use, have to think a bit more. If “Supernatural” means anything, I’d be surprised if anyone here bears a definition that does not render Simulation equivalent to the scenario God as God was defined in the survey.
To me, “Supernatural”, if you’re going to use it, could only mean “so mysterious as to be beyond being reasoned about or modelled”. The work of the simulator’s hand would definitely qualify as such, and so too would the simulator itself. Lo, a supernatural creator. God is reality.
FWIW, this line of reasoning comes up pretty regularly (especially in response to that survey question), so if the surveyors fail to realize the associated difficulties, it’s not through failure to have it pointed out. I suspect they realize it just fine.
For my own part, I just skip questions that I don’t know how to answer and move on.
Incidentally, LW has a preferred local understanding of “supernatural,” which derives from this post. That’s not to say everyone here thinks it’s a good definition—I don’t, for example—but it’s probably the best Schelling point to use when a shared understanding is important.
Continuing to complain about it may still have an effect though. I personally think they should post the definition they’re using for “supernatural” in the description for the question, maybe right below their current description.
Ah. Hardly incidental. I wish I’d known about that. I hold that the definition (if it belongs to anyone at all) belongs to those who self-identify as believers in the supernatural, this form feels far more like what I’d expect to find in their heads. Great clumbering atomic concepts that can’t be broken down to the stuff of ordinary reasoning.
(nods)
For my own part, I try to avoid using words whose definitions are saliently ambiguous, and when I am listening to others do so I try as well as I can to understand what they mean to convey by using the phrase, and otherwise try to avoid getting too tangled up in questions of what ambiguous phrases really mean.
When it comes to “supernatural”… the people I listen to who (claim to) believe in the supernatural mostly just seem to be referring to events that aren’t explicable by or are inconsistent with modern scientific consensus beliefs. That is, it seems to be an epistemological category, not an ontological one.
And while it’s certainly possible to get into a whole discussion of whether any given event falls in that category or not, on a broader level it doesn’t matter much to the broader question of whether such events can occur. I mean, of course such events occur with regularity, since the modern scientific consensus at any given moment is always an incomplete (and to a lesser extent outright inaccurate) and evolving model of reality. I agree with that much completely.
They don’t, as far as I can tell, have any consistent beliefs one way or the other about whether ontologically basic mental entities are at the core of those events. For example, I have several friends who (claim to) believe that the spirits of dead people can manifest themselves physically in various contexts, but they have no more of a notion of whether those spirits are ontologically basic mental entities than I have of the mineral composition of Ceres.
Of course, there’s also a subset of those folks who argue that since scientific consensus is incomplete/inaccurate, they’re allowed to hold on to whatever explanations they’re most comfortable/familiar with, which frequently includes traditional occult legends and memes from various cultures. But that’s a fallacy of reasoning that seems entirely orthogonal to the question of what they mean by “supernatural.”
I somehow doubt that if it was suddenly discovered that cigarette smoking was good for your health, many people would refer to that as supernatural, even though that would be inconsistent with modern scientific consensus beliefs.
I agree.
Supernatural under a definition which implies it cannot exist still has a use. The word is a useful label to talk about people’s beliefs; of course it’s possible to believe in things which cannot exist.
IIRC I gave the same answer for both for exactly this reason, but I might remember wrong and have just considered it.