This reminds me of when I found an error in a popular asteroid impact effects calculator. The calculator suggested that an impact would generate only very minor earthquakes. For instance, if the Moon were to collide with the Earth, it would barely be noticeable on the other side of the planet.
I reached out to the creator of this model. They responded by explaining that their data is derived from a study on the effects of minor impacts on the Moon, as measured by a certain Apollo scientific instrument.
The study concluded that minor impactors contribute less than 0.0001% of their energy to seismic waves. However, I believe there is a significant difference between minor impactors on the Moon and larger impactors on Earth. Minor impactors hit a solid surface, and most of their kinetic energy is directed into ricocheting debris, with only a tiny fraction becoming sound waves.
In contrast, larger (kilometer-sized) impactors on Earth would penetrate deep underground, and the Earth’s surface around them would behave more like a liquid. This liquid-like surface would create a large ‘splash’, and a significant portion of the impact energy would be converted into waves—I estimate this to be between 1 and 10 percent.
Consequently, I believe that the seismic effects of potential impactors are underestimated when compared to more widely-recognized effects such as global tsunamis and climate change.
This reminds me of when I found an error in a popular asteroid impact effects calculator. The calculator suggested that an impact would generate only very minor earthquakes. For instance, if the Moon were to collide with the Earth, it would barely be noticeable on the other side of the planet.
I reached out to the creator of this model. They responded by explaining that their data is derived from a study on the effects of minor impacts on the Moon, as measured by a certain Apollo scientific instrument.
The study concluded that minor impactors contribute less than 0.0001% of their energy to seismic waves. However, I believe there is a significant difference between minor impactors on the Moon and larger impactors on Earth. Minor impactors hit a solid surface, and most of their kinetic energy is directed into ricocheting debris, with only a tiny fraction becoming sound waves.
In contrast, larger (kilometer-sized) impactors on Earth would penetrate deep underground, and the Earth’s surface around them would behave more like a liquid. This liquid-like surface would create a large ‘splash’, and a significant portion of the impact energy would be converted into waves—I estimate this to be between 1 and 10 percent.
Consequently, I believe that the seismic effects of potential impactors are underestimated when compared to more widely-recognized effects such as global tsunamis and climate change.