This seems like a story that’s unsupported by any evidence, and no better than fiction.
They could have fought over resources in a scramble of each against all, but anarchy isn’t stable.
This seems most likely, and “stable” isn’t a filter in this situation − 1⁄3 of the population will die, nothing is stable. It wouldn’t really be “each against all”, but “small (usually family) coalitions against some of the other small-ish coalitions”. The optimal size of coalition will be dependend on a lot of factors, including ease of defection and strength of non-economic bonds between members.
This seems like a story that’s unsupported by any evidence, and no better than fiction.
Not at all. It’s just a description of the island’s population over time, followed by a logical conclusion of what most likely happened when the ecosystem becomes overpopulated. Without sufficient famine, disease, or predation to cull the population back below the carrying capacity, and without new crops, technologies, or resources to satisfy the population, the inevitable outcome is conflict over resources. Which sentences are “unsupported” in your opinion?
The ecocide hypothesis is not a minority position either. There is criticism against it, but we also know that there’s a strong and general humanistacademic bias to oppose it in general.
It wouldn’t really be “each against all”, but “small (usually family) coalitions against some of the other small-ish coalitions”.
I think this is pedantic, but I understand what you meant. Parents would compete against other parents to feed their starving children, and siblings may compete against their siblings to some extent and others for care and resources. Coalitions could form to attack other coalitions, but the possibility of defection or betrayal effectively turns the competition for survival into each against all.
Thanks for commenting.
However, he also wrote in the same paragraph:
There are no written records of it, but I’m pretty sure that’s what happened, or something like that.
He wrote “or something like that”, so I think that allows some variation of two (main) groups fighting each other in a war.
He gave his reasoning for why individuals would team into larger groups in the previous paragraph, but I will agree that it’s mostly speculative how many warring groups there were.
Regardless, I’m convinced that the island’s environmental degradation and population collapse were both most likely caused by overpopulation.
“something like that” isn’t open enough. “or something else entirely” seems more likely than “something like that”. Many more than 2 groups (family-sized coalitions) is an obvious possibility, but there are plenty of other strategies used by primitive malthusian societies—infanticide being a big one, and ritual killings being another. According to Wikipedia, Jared Diamond suggests cannibalism for Rapa Nui.
Looking at Wikipedia (which I should have done earlier), there’s very little evidence for what specific things changed during the collapse.
In any case, it’s tenuous enough that one shouldn’t take any lessons or update your models based on this.
This seems like a story that’s unsupported by any evidence, and no better than fiction.
This seems most likely, and “stable” isn’t a filter in this situation − 1⁄3 of the population will die, nothing is stable. It wouldn’t really be “each against all”, but “small (usually family) coalitions against some of the other small-ish coalitions”. The optimal size of coalition will be dependend on a lot of factors, including ease of defection and strength of non-economic bonds between members.
Not at all. It’s just a description of the island’s population over time, followed by a logical conclusion of what most likely happened when the ecosystem becomes overpopulated. Without sufficient famine, disease, or predation to cull the population back below the carrying capacity, and without new crops, technologies, or resources to satisfy the population, the inevitable outcome is conflict over resources. Which sentences are “unsupported” in your opinion?
The ecocide hypothesis is not a minority position either. There is criticism against it, but we also know that there’s a strong and general humanist academic bias to oppose it in general.
I think this is pedantic, but I understand what you meant. Parents would compete against other parents to feed their starving children, and siblings may compete against their siblings to some extent and others for care and resources. Coalitions could form to attack other coalitions, but the possibility of defection or betrayal effectively turns the competition for survival into each against all.
Specifically, “So, the islanders split into two groups and went to war.” is fiction—there’s no evidence, and it doesn’t seem particularly likely.
Thanks for commenting. However, he also wrote in the same paragraph:
He wrote “or something like that”, so I think that allows some variation of two (main) groups fighting each other in a war. He gave his reasoning for why individuals would team into larger groups in the previous paragraph, but I will agree that it’s mostly speculative how many warring groups there were. Regardless, I’m convinced that the island’s environmental degradation and population collapse were both most likely caused by overpopulation.
“something like that” isn’t open enough. “or something else entirely” seems more likely than “something like that”. Many more than 2 groups (family-sized coalitions) is an obvious possibility, but there are plenty of other strategies used by primitive malthusian societies—infanticide being a big one, and ritual killings being another. According to Wikipedia, Jared Diamond suggests cannibalism for Rapa Nui.
Looking at Wikipedia (which I should have done earlier), there’s very little evidence for what specific things changed during the collapse.
In any case, it’s tenuous enough that one shouldn’t take any lessons or update your models based on this.