Except that AI-related research could likely require a ton of compute, which Russian companies aren’t on track to possess even if we compare them with Chinese ones, like DeepCent from AI-2027.
If one is talking about AGI/ASI and if one assumes that tons of compute would be critical for that, then yes, that’s probably correct. If novel research and algorithmic art turns out to be more crucial than compute, then it is less certain.
But so far, they have been able to train models which are used by people in Russia. So in more pedestrian AI terms, they are already a notable player and they have quite a bit of older compute.
In any case, other countries are more on track in terms of compute than Russia (American players are building data centers all over the world, and property rights might turn out to be… hmmm… “less than ironclad” in some cases, and non-American entities are buying a lot of compute as well). So when I talk about a multilateral situation, I do count Russia for its traditional strength in science and engineering, and for the fact that their government maintains a sustained and focused intense interest in the subject of very advanced AI, but I count a number of other countries ahead of it. Those countries don’t even have to be large; for example, Singapore is a formidable player, makes excellent specialized models, rich, good with tech, strong scientific and engineering culture. If we think that Ilya’s org has a shot at it, then Singapore also has a shot at it. (And yes, I am ready to buy Ilya’s argument that with a better research approach few billion might be enough. If one can afford to use more brute force, sure why not, but having too much brute force available tends to make one a bit too complacent and less adventurous in their search for new approaches.)
Except that AI-related research could likely require a ton of compute, which Russian companies aren’t on track to possess even if we compare them with Chinese ones, like DeepCent from AI-2027.
If one is talking about AGI/ASI and if one assumes that tons of compute would be critical for that, then yes, that’s probably correct. If novel research and algorithmic art turns out to be more crucial than compute, then it is less certain.
But so far, they have been able to train models which are used by people in Russia. So in more pedestrian AI terms, they are already a notable player and they have quite a bit of older compute.
In any case, other countries are more on track in terms of compute than Russia (American players are building data centers all over the world, and property rights might turn out to be… hmmm… “less than ironclad” in some cases, and non-American entities are buying a lot of compute as well). So when I talk about a multilateral situation, I do count Russia for its traditional strength in science and engineering, and for the fact that their government maintains a sustained and focused intense interest in the subject of very advanced AI, but I count a number of other countries ahead of it. Those countries don’t even have to be large; for example, Singapore is a formidable player, makes excellent specialized models, rich, good with tech, strong scientific and engineering culture. If we think that Ilya’s org has a shot at it, then Singapore also has a shot at it. (And yes, I am ready to buy Ilya’s argument that with a better research approach few billion might be enough. If one can afford to use more brute force, sure why not, but having too much brute force available tends to make one a bit too complacent and less adventurous in their search for new approaches.)