Do you think there’s some potential for applying the skills, logic, and values of the rationalist community to issues surrounding prison reform and helping predict better outcomes?
Ha! Of course not.
Well, no, the honest answer would be “I don’t know, I don’t have any personal experience in that domain”. But the problems I have cited (lack of budget, the general population actively wanting conditions not to improve) can’t be fixed with better data analysis.
From anecdotes I’ve had from civil servants, directors love new data analysis tools, because they promise to improve outcomes without a budget raise. Staff hates new data analysis tools because they represent more work for them without a budget raise, and they desperately want the budget raise.
I mean, yeah, rationality and thinking hard about things always helps on the margin, but it doesn’t compensate for a lack of budget or political goodwill. The secret ingredients to make a reform work are money and time.
Ha! Of course not.
Well, no, the honest answer would be “I don’t know, I don’t have any personal experience in that domain”. But the problems I have cited (lack of budget, the general population actively wanting conditions not to improve) can’t be fixed with better data analysis.
From anecdotes I’ve had from civil servants, directors love new data analysis tools, because they promise to improve outcomes without a budget raise. Staff hates new data analysis tools because they represent more work for them without a budget raise, and they desperately want the budget raise.
I mean, yeah, rationality and thinking hard about things always helps on the margin, but it doesn’t compensate for a lack of budget or political goodwill. The secret ingredients to make a reform work are money and time.