MZ, if you want to prove your claim, start creating a data series of your probabilities on these events, forecasts which you create independently of the market forecasts to which you want to compare. Then with enough data on your and market forecasts, we could evaluate their relative accuracy. Every time we’ve done that in the past the market has done at least as well as the the other forecast source.
MZ, if you want to prove your claim, start creating a data series of your probabilities on these events, forecasts which you create independently of the market forecasts to which you want to compare. Then with enough data on your and market forecasts, we could evaluate their relative accuracy. Every time we’ve done that in the past the market has done at least as well as the the other forecast source.