Strong upvoted because I doubt the implications will be adequately appreciated in all of LW/EA. Some cause ideas are astronomically noisy. Sometimes almost deliberately, in the service of “finding” the “highest potential” areas.
Above some (unknown) point, the odds they’re somehow confused/exaggerating should rise faster than further increments up the ostensible value. I’m sure they’ll claim to have sufficiently strong insight, to pull it back to the top of the EV curve. This doesn’t seem credible, even though I expect the optimal effort into those causes is >0, and even though their individual arguments are often hard to argue against.
Strong upvoted because I doubt the implications will be adequately appreciated in all of LW/EA. Some cause ideas are astronomically noisy. Sometimes almost deliberately, in the service of “finding” the “highest potential” areas.
Above some (unknown) point, the odds they’re somehow confused/exaggerating should rise faster than further increments up the ostensible value. I’m sure they’ll claim to have sufficiently strong insight, to pull it back to the top of the EV curve. This doesn’t seem credible, even though I expect the optimal effort into those causes is >0, and even though their individual arguments are often hard to argue against.