You unfortunately forgot to mention the cost of a ticket in the lottery and the payout in the lottery. If the payout is high enough that the expected payout of the ticket is greater or equal to the cost of the ticket then the lottery make sense to play. Since each ticket in that case has a payout equal or greater then its cost it makes sense to buy up all of the possible combinations to ensure a win.
He’s talking about epistemology, not decision theory. Decision theory depends on a whole host of factors other than the probability of the desired outcome. I would buy a $1 lottery ticket if it were clear that it represented a 1⁄8,194,749 chance of winning $131,115,985. Epistemologically, however, I would be astonished if something happened besides me being $1 poorer.
You unfortunately forgot to mention the cost of a ticket in the lottery and the payout in the lottery. If the payout is high enough that the expected payout of the ticket is greater or equal to the cost of the ticket then the lottery make sense to play. Since each ticket in that case has a payout equal or greater then its cost it makes sense to buy up all of the possible combinations to ensure a win.
He’s talking about epistemology, not decision theory. Decision theory depends on a whole host of factors other than the probability of the desired outcome. I would buy a $1 lottery ticket if it were clear that it represented a 1⁄8,194,749 chance of winning $131,115,985. Epistemologically, however, I would be astonished if something happened besides me being $1 poorer.