He’s talking about epistemology, not decision theory. Decision theory depends on a whole host of factors other than the probability of the desired outcome. I would buy a $1 lottery ticket if it were clear that it represented a 1⁄8,194,749 chance of winning $131,115,985. Epistemologically, however, I would be astonished if something happened besides me being $1 poorer.
He’s talking about epistemology, not decision theory. Decision theory depends on a whole host of factors other than the probability of the desired outcome. I would buy a $1 lottery ticket if it were clear that it represented a 1⁄8,194,749 chance of winning $131,115,985. Epistemologically, however, I would be astonished if something happened besides me being $1 poorer.