There have been attempts here and elsewhere to recommend investments if you think AGI is more likely than “the market” seems to. Whether optimistic or pessimistic in outcome, the only agreement I’ve seen is “there are more out-of-distribution possibilities than we can account for, so it’s impossible to find alpha over 5-year or better horizons, unless you are deeply personally involved in some sector”.
I agree with the conclusion: most of the market volume is indicating a disbelief in massive transformation. But it could equally be a wager on transformation in directions whose probabilities cancel each other out. It’s important to realize that all prices, including interest rates, are ratios of values one thing to another. Interest is the ratio of the value of a currency now to the value later. And value is a ratio too—it’s what you can exchange or use a thing for. The problem with massive disruption is you get nonsense values when a value goes to 0 (if a lynchpin of the calculations becomes unnecessary) or infinite (a commodity in this valuation-ratio chain becomes completely unavailable).
There have been attempts here and elsewhere to recommend investments if you think AGI is more likely than “the market” seems to. Whether optimistic or pessimistic in outcome, the only agreement I’ve seen is “there are more out-of-distribution possibilities than we can account for, so it’s impossible to find alpha over 5-year or better horizons, unless you are deeply personally involved in some sector”.
I agree with the conclusion: most of the market volume is indicating a disbelief in massive transformation. But it could equally be a wager on transformation in directions whose probabilities cancel each other out. It’s important to realize that all prices, including interest rates, are ratios of values one thing to another. Interest is the ratio of the value of a currency now to the value later. And value is a ratio too—it’s what you can exchange or use a thing for. The problem with massive disruption is you get nonsense values when a value goes to 0 (if a lynchpin of the calculations becomes unnecessary) or infinite (a commodity in this valuation-ratio chain becomes completely unavailable).