Also in light of recent events (big breakthroughs in accuracy of CRISPR editing, stem cell<->gametes<->embryo creation, & complex trait polygenic scores), I’d be interested in questions about embryo selection, iterated embryo selection (IES), and embryo editing. This would be similar to the other belief questions, I guess—maybe median date of first baby born with any CRISPR edits, median date of first IES procedure? (I don’t see any point in asking for probabilities for CRISPR, at least; everyone knows it’s a matter of when, not if.)
Also in light of recent events (big breakthroughs in accuracy of CRISPR editing, stem cell<->gametes<->embryo creation, & complex trait polygenic scores), I’d be interested in questions about embryo selection, iterated embryo selection (IES), and embryo editing. This would be similar to the other belief questions, I guess—maybe median date of first baby born with any CRISPR edits, median date of first IES procedure? (I don’t see any point in asking for probabilities for CRISPR, at least; everyone knows it’s a matter of when, not if.)