Because the prior probability of something titled “rationalist sonnets about being a person” being any good is low, and the likely degree of badness so abysmal, that reading would be more likely to generate an incorrect judgment of high quality than a correct judgment of high quality. I should downvote even if I think I should upvote. Giving it a chance would just be exposing myself to risk.
Were you just going by the title of the post? Should the facts that the post has 7 upvotes (and I think had 8 before you downvoted it) and I have over 5000 karma points affect your priors?
Should the facts that the post has 7 upvotes (and I think had 8 before you downvoted it) and I have over 5000 karma points affect your priors?
Not as much as you might think. Being able to get LW karma isn’t a very good predictor of poetic ability, I’ve seen fairly mediocre pro-secular-humanist poetry receive a generally positive reaction on LW before, and the evidence of the title mostly screens off that stuff anyway.
Why?
Because the prior probability of something titled “rationalist sonnets about being a person” being any good is low, and the likely degree of badness so abysmal, that reading would be more likely to generate an incorrect judgment of high quality than a correct judgment of high quality. I should downvote even if I think I should upvote. Giving it a chance would just be exposing myself to risk.
Were you just going by the title of the post? Should the facts that the post has 7 upvotes (and I think had 8 before you downvoted it) and I have over 5000 karma points affect your priors?
Yes.
Not as much as you might think. Being able to get LW karma isn’t a very good predictor of poetic ability, I’ve seen fairly mediocre pro-secular-humanist poetry receive a generally positive reaction on LW before, and the evidence of the title mostly screens off that stuff anyway.