Ah yep, as Oli says, I’m afraid this wasn’t Eliezer’s point.
The main case Eliezer has previously said was very surprising was from our very own Wei Dai. Wei Dai bought puts, and their positions went up 1500% and 2300%. He unfortunately did not sell them before the US Govt announced a $6 trillion stimulus package, but AFAIK that doesn’t imply that he made any mistakes in correctly noticing the market had not reacted to the oncoming catastrophe.
I think Michael’s position doesn’t have much to do with covid, but a lot to do with 6b. The crisis is a coordination point for bursting a bubble. 6b says that there is very little new information, but the stock market is acknowledging a large backlog of negative news. The whole market was a bubble, but Boeing was the worst of the bubble (plus covid is news specifically about transport). In some sense this is a very strong rejection of EMH, but, “the market can stay irrational,” “noise traders,” etc.
Ah yep, as Oli says, I’m afraid this wasn’t Eliezer’s point.
The main case Eliezer has previously said was very surprising was from our very own Wei Dai. Wei Dai bought puts, and their positions went up 1500% and 2300%. He unfortunately did not sell them before the US Govt announced a $6 trillion stimulus package, but AFAIK that doesn’t imply that he made any mistakes in correctly noticing the market had not reacted to the oncoming catastrophe.
(Of related interest, Michael Vassar seems to have made a substantial amount of money betting against Boeing being able to deal with the catastrophe, a corporation he thinks is especially corrupt. As far as I’m aware he basically has been going off public information (I believe they had multiple plane crashes in the last year or so), which is of some interest to the EMH, although not super related to covid in particular.)
I think Michael’s position doesn’t have much to do with covid, but a lot to do with 6b. The crisis is a coordination point for bursting a bubble. 6b says that there is very little new information, but the stock market is acknowledging a large backlog of negative news. The whole market was a bubble, but Boeing was the worst of the bubble (plus covid is news specifically about transport). In some sense this is a very strong rejection of EMH, but, “the market can stay irrational,” “noise traders,” etc.