The effects of measures on the spread take weeks to show up in the data.
If the doubling time hadn’t cratered, the hospitalization rate would’ve remained exponential. At the time of posting it was comparatively flat, and I estimated.
The half came from the fact that it usually takes ~3 weeks to die, that the exponential spread had only stopped a few weeks earlier, and a drawing of a triangle and square representing a rise and flat that I drew a vertical line through.
The effects of measures on the spread take weeks to show up in the data.
If the doubling time hadn’t cratered, the hospitalization rate would’ve remained exponential. At the time of posting it was comparatively flat, and I estimated.
The half came from the fact that it usually takes ~3 weeks to die, that the exponential spread had only stopped a few weeks earlier, and a drawing of a triangle and square representing a rise and flat that I drew a vertical line through.