The only way Yudkowsky benefits from his loan is if he spends all of his resources before 2030, but if he does that then Caplan won’t get paid back, even if Caplin wins the bet.
I don’t think that’s true; he has sufficient earning potential to come up with the money in a short time frame near when it’s due.
I don’t think that’s true; he has sufficient earning potential to come up with the money in a short time frame near when it’s due.
I think the right place for this discussion is on my other post The Caplan-Yudkowsky End-of-the-World Bet Scheme Doesn’t Actually Work.