Regarding 14⁄15, I felt that we were probably under-reacting, but “general consensus” is tricky. We were in the home stretch of the Trump presidency so I figured the baseline odds of “consensus” on anything were extremely low.
I’m kicking myself on #16 - I don’t know enough about epidemiology to make such a strong guess.
Yeah, I did a similar thing on #38 where I was similarly overconfident on an economy question which I don’t know nearly enough about.
On #16 itself I was lower than I should have been because I was using “virus” as a reference class rather than “respiratory virus” which was an obvious mistake looking back at it.