Koan: Is this a task whose difficulty caps out as human intelligence, or at the intelligence level of the smartest human who wrote any Internet text? What factors make that task easier, or harder? (If you don’t have an answer, maybe take a minute to generate one, or alternatively, try to predict what I’ll say next; if you do have an answer, take a moment to review it inside your mind, or maybe say the words out loud.)
Something which can predict everything all the time is more formidable than any demonstrator it predicts: the upper bound of what can be learned from a dataset is not the most capable trajectory, but the conditional structure of the universe implicated by their sum (though it may not be trivial to extract that knowledge).
From @janus’ Simulators:
I tried (poorly) to draw attention to this thesis in my “The Limit of Language Models”.