Well, for a real money prediction market, market returns should prevent you from distinguishing anything below ~7%. Short resolution criteria help, but would still be compared to how liquid an investments in the regular stock market can be.
For a play money market like manifold, I’d expect shorter resolutions to have more impact.
It’s 7% per year (or 9% per year or whatever the figure is, the important part being PER YEAR). So if we resolve in 2 months, surely the opportunity costs are lower and that will let us get more precision on lower probabilities?
Well, for a real money prediction market, market returns should prevent you from distinguishing anything below ~7%. Short resolution criteria help, but would still be compared to how liquid an investments in the regular stock market can be.
For a play money market like manifold, I’d expect shorter resolutions to have more impact.
It’s 7% per year (or 9% per year or whatever the figure is, the important part being PER YEAR). So if we resolve in 2 months, surely the opportunity costs are lower and that will let us get more precision on lower probabilities?
Or am I missing something?
Ah, duh! Thanks, I think you are right.