The strain making the news was picked up by German tourists watching birds in a garbage dump in Ushuaia, Argentina.
A pandemic-grade strain of Andes virus has just emerged from Ushuaia. The German tourists were potentially the first victims, but the Hondius passengers and Ushuaian residents are all about to become the first victims of a coming Andes virus pandemic, which will start in Ushuaia and the immediate contacts of the Hondius passengers, radiating out from there.
The German tourists picked up a strain of Andes virus that already had pandemic potential before they were infected by it. But Ushuaians, unlike German tourists, don’t frequent their own garbage dumps and have no meaningful exposure to the rodents that are its reservoire, so they aren’t exposed to it. For this reason, the rest of the world gets pandemic Andes virus before Ushuaia itself.
As (2), except Ushuaia is about to have a mass outbreak of Andes virus and get quarantined. The quarantine works on Ushuaia, protecting the rest of South America, but because the tourists had already spread it globally, it can’t be contained. Ushuaia and the rest of the world get rapid growth in Andes virus cases, but South America is temporarily isolated from the pandemic.
The German tourists picked up a strain that mutated within their bodies on on board the Hondius to be much more human transmissible than the virus the tourists picked up in Ushuaia. In this case, the rest of the world would be getting exposed to pandemic-potential hantavirus before Ushuaia and the rest of South America, resulting in the rest of the world having more cases over the next few months than Ushuaia.
If we were about to have an Andes virus pandemic, scenario 1 seems massively morely likely to me than 2, 3, or 4. But in that case, we’d see cases mounting in South America in tandem with or at a faster pace than the rest of the world.
I do think that seeing enough de novo cases of Andes virus outside existing quarantine centers that infections transmitted at close quarters on the Hondius can’t account for it would be a massive, terrifying update for me about the potential for an Andes virus pandemic. It’s just that growth of Andes virus cases in South America probably shouldn’t update you away from the risk of a global Andes virus pandemic.
The strain making the news was picked up by German tourists watching birds in a garbage dump in Ushuaia, Argentina.
A pandemic-grade strain of Andes virus has just emerged from Ushuaia. The German tourists were potentially the first victims, but the Hondius passengers and Ushuaian residents are all about to become the first victims of a coming Andes virus pandemic, which will start in Ushuaia and the immediate contacts of the Hondius passengers, radiating out from there.
The German tourists picked up a strain of Andes virus that already had pandemic potential before they were infected by it. But Ushuaians, unlike German tourists, don’t frequent their own garbage dumps and have no meaningful exposure to the rodents that are its reservoire, so they aren’t exposed to it. For this reason, the rest of the world gets pandemic Andes virus before Ushuaia itself.
As (2), except Ushuaia is about to have a mass outbreak of Andes virus and get quarantined. The quarantine works on Ushuaia, protecting the rest of South America, but because the tourists had already spread it globally, it can’t be contained. Ushuaia and the rest of the world get rapid growth in Andes virus cases, but South America is temporarily isolated from the pandemic.
The German tourists picked up a strain that mutated within their bodies on on board the Hondius to be much more human transmissible than the virus the tourists picked up in Ushuaia. In this case, the rest of the world would be getting exposed to pandemic-potential hantavirus before Ushuaia and the rest of South America, resulting in the rest of the world having more cases over the next few months than Ushuaia.
If we were about to have an Andes virus pandemic, scenario 1 seems massively morely likely to me than 2, 3, or 4. But in that case, we’d see cases mounting in South America in tandem with or at a faster pace than the rest of the world.
I do think that seeing enough de novo cases of Andes virus outside existing quarantine centers that infections transmitted at close quarters on the Hondius can’t account for it would be a massive, terrifying update for me about the potential for an Andes virus pandemic. It’s just that growth of Andes virus cases in South America probably shouldn’t update you away from the risk of a global Andes virus pandemic.