I’m not sure what you’d learn, other than that breakthroughs are hard to predict. The thing you don’t include in your predicted results is when it actually happens, and you have to figure out which of them is correct.
Personally, I don’t expect to see a foom, I expect a gradual increase in power of multiple corporate- and government-affiliated AIs over the next ~30 years, with super-linear resources behind it causing sub-linear growth in power, but eventually crossing some threshold where control is no longer believably held by humans. I predict we won’t agree on what year this threshold is crossed, but we’ll probably be able to identify a decade.
I’m not sure what you’d learn, other than that breakthroughs are hard to predict. The thing you don’t include in your predicted results is when it actually happens, and you have to figure out which of them is correct.
Personally, I don’t expect to see a foom, I expect a gradual increase in power of multiple corporate- and government-affiliated AIs over the next ~30 years, with super-linear resources behind it causing sub-linear growth in power, but eventually crossing some threshold where control is no longer believably held by humans. I predict we won’t agree on what year this threshold is crossed, but we’ll probably be able to identify a decade.