This review has plenty of good parts, but I disagree with lots of your probabilities.
Even if you think there’s a 90% chance that things go wrong in each stage, the odds of them all going wrong is only 59%.
No. I expect mistakes in each of those 90% predictions to be significantly correlated. Why do you combine them as if they’re independent?
I meant conditional on the others.
This review has plenty of good parts, but I disagree with lots of your probabilities.
No. I expect mistakes in each of those 90% predictions to be significantly correlated. Why do you combine them as if they’re independent?
I meant conditional on the others.