While I realize that the PredictIt predictions don’t actually have this data available, fivethirtyeight projects vote share by state. How much work do you think it would be to do an analysis that uses vote share instead of just wins by state?
Most closely contested states went to Biden, so vote share is more in Trump’s favor than you’d expect based on knowing only who won each state, and PredictIt generally predicted more votes for Trump, so I think PredictIt comes out a lot better than 538 and the Economist.
While I realize that the PredictIt predictions don’t actually have this data available, fivethirtyeight projects vote share by state. How much work do you think it would be to do an analysis that uses vote share instead of just wins by state?
Most closely contested states went to Biden, so vote share is more in Trump’s favor than you’d expect based on knowing only who won each state, and PredictIt generally predicted more votes for Trump, so I think PredictIt comes out a lot better than 538 and the Economist.
PredictIt does have this available for some states, e.g. Pennsylvania.