Do I think my assessment will coincide with yours? Of course I do, we’re supposed to be rationalists!
I had zero familiarity with the case before reading the links provided, and did not read any of the comments in reaching my estimate.
I admit to having non-trivially updated based on my perception of the lack of seriousness of the pro-conviction site’s domain name (what is this, Marvel Comics?)
The prior probability of a three-way conspiracy to commit rape and murder is way, way lower than the prior probability of it being a one man job.
I didn’t see any evidence that would move much probability mass away from the prior probabilities, but this could just be due to the slice of the evidence I saw given my 30 minutes or so of reviewing it.
How much of a shift do you think this accounted for? What would your estimates have been if the same site had been called something different?
The name is just one piece of evidence. Overall the pro-conviction site did not impress me at all. It seemed to be full of irrelevant statements, and things like site usage statistics.
P(AK=guilty) = .01
P(RS=guilty) = .01
P(RG=guilty) = .995
Do I think my assessment will coincide with yours? Of course I do, we’re supposed to be rationalists!
I had zero familiarity with the case before reading the links provided, and did not read any of the comments in reaching my estimate.
I admit to having non-trivially updated based on my perception of the lack of seriousness of the pro-conviction site’s domain name (what is this, Marvel Comics?)
Those are very high confidences, could you say a little about that?
The prior probability of a three-way conspiracy to commit rape and murder is way, way lower than the prior probability of it being a one man job.
I didn’t see any evidence that would move much probability mass away from the prior probabilities, but this could just be due to the slice of the evidence I saw given my 30 minutes or so of reviewing it.
How much of a shift do you think this accounted for? What would your estimates have been if the same site had been called something different?
The name is just one piece of evidence. Overall the pro-conviction site did not impress me at all. It seemed to be full of irrelevant statements, and things like site usage statistics.