Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
5%. She was near the crime scene and doesn’t have a coherent story about what she did that day. She might have bought bleach. Other than that they don’t appear to have any evidence against her.
Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
5%
Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
95%. Handprints in blood. His blood mixed with the victims. His “DNA” “inside” the victim. If he is not guilty then he was framed in a quite advanced manner. And in that case I’d expect him to have something to say about how they got his blood and handprints.
How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
5%. She was near the crime scene and doesn’t have a coherent story about what she did that day. She might have bought bleach. Other than that they don’t appear to have any evidence against her.
5%
95%. Handprints in blood. His blood mixed with the victims. His “DNA” “inside” the victim. If he is not guilty then he was framed in a quite advanced manner. And in that case I’d expect him to have something to say about how they got his blood and handprints.
Probably quite similar.