Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
0.05
Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
0.9
How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
p(same direction) = 0.6
p(someone in the prosecution is guilty of actions I would give live imprisonment for) = 0.99.
0.05
0.05
Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
0.9
How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
p(same direction) = 0.6
p(someone in the prosecution is guilty of actions I would give live imprisonment for) = 0.99.