Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine
p = .45
p = .45
p = .60
We probably agree on which side of .5 these numbers should be, i suspect you are far more confident, which is perhaps understandable if you have a better understanding of the evidence
It’s hard to be very confident after skimming for 30-40min. I don’t have the expertise or the time to verify many of the statements made by either side, especially DNA evidence and the like, but the prosecution looks pretty weak. The DNA evidence against the defense doesn’t seem to hold up, and the fact that the defendant’s stories are inconsistent over time show that they have the memory of, well, humans.
I should also mention that I probably have a bias for the defense in cases like this.
Just skimmed the two sites. First:
p = .45
p = .45
p = .60
We probably agree on which side of .5 these numbers should be, i suspect you are far more confident, which is perhaps understandable if you have a better understanding of the evidence
It’s hard to be very confident after skimming for 30-40min. I don’t have the expertise or the time to verify many of the statements made by either side, especially DNA evidence and the like, but the prosecution looks pretty weak. The DNA evidence against the defense doesn’t seem to hold up, and the fact that the defendant’s stories are inconsistent over time show that they have the memory of, well, humans.
I should also mention that I probably have a bias for the defense in cases like this.
Any thoughts on why that might be the case?
I’m more or less a libertarian.