I was 95% sure of the century, and was right about that much—but my 20% probability of +- 15 years didn’t make any sense in hindsight, given the information that I had.
Embarrassing since lately I’ve been talking a lot about both probability and the history of philosophy after Newton.
I was 95% sure of the century, and was right about that much—but my 20% probability of +- 15 years didn’t make any sense in hindsight, given the information that I had.
Embarrassing since lately I’ve been talking a lot about both probability and the history of philosophy after Newton.