I took the survey. I would trust my probabilities for aliens, espers, and time travelers as far as I can throw them. I don’t really think any number I could give would be reasonable except in the weak sense of not committing the conjunction fallacy.
I second the anchoring effect in the Singularity question. Based on previous comments I had written before, I would have expected a far more distant year than the one I gave in the survey. Oops.
Also, I missed the Principia question by ten years, and gave myself 80% confidence. I don’t know if that was good or bad. How would I go about estimating what my confidence should have been?
I was disappointed that mathematics fell under the “hard sciences”, but I suppose we can’t all have our own category.
The confidence question was “how confident are you that you are within 15 years of the right answer?” which you were. You assigned 80% probability to the true outcome. That’s pretty good.
I took the survey. I would trust my probabilities for aliens, espers, and time travelers as far as I can throw them. I don’t really think any number I could give would be reasonable except in the weak sense of not committing the conjunction fallacy.
I second the anchoring effect in the Singularity question. Based on previous comments I had written before, I would have expected a far more distant year than the one I gave in the survey. Oops.
Also, I missed the Principia question by ten years, and gave myself 80% confidence. I don’t know if that was good or bad. How would I go about estimating what my confidence should have been?
I was disappointed that mathematics fell under the “hard sciences”, but I suppose we can’t all have our own category.
The confidence question was “how confident are you that you are within 15 years of the right answer?” which you were. You assigned 80% probability to the true outcome. That’s pretty good.