I’m not entirely sure what’s being asked here. Is this asking “if we do experiment 1000001 and see k Rs in the first four trials, then what credence do you assign to the 5th trial being R?”
Or is it “if we take a random experiment out of the million and see k Rs in the first four trials, then what credence do you assign to the 5th trial being R”? This isn’t the same question as the first.
It’s asking, “If I draw a histogram of the frequency of R of the fifth trial, with buckets corresponding to the number of Rs in the first four trials, what will the heights of the bars be?”
We are not doing any more experiments. All the experiments have already been done in the 1,000,000 provided experiments. I’ve just left out the fifth trial from these experiments.
This is almost the same question as, “If we do experiment 1000001 and see k Rs in the first four trials, then what credence do you assign to the 5th trial being R,” but not quite. Your goal is to predict the marginals frequencies for the experiments I have actually conducted, not any idealized “next experiment”. Because 1,000,000 trials is so many, this should be close, but they are not quite the same. The actual marginal frequencies will have some noise, for example.
I hope this helps! If you need more explanation, feel free to ask.
I’m not entirely sure what’s being asked here. Is this asking “if we do experiment 1000001 and see k Rs in the first four trials, then what credence do you assign to the 5th trial being R?”
Or is it “if we take a random experiment out of the million and see k Rs in the first four trials, then what credence do you assign to the 5th trial being R”? This isn’t the same question as the first.
Or is it something else again?
It’s asking, “If I draw a histogram of the frequency of R of the fifth trial, with buckets corresponding to the number of Rs in the first four trials, what will the heights of the bars be?”
We are not doing any more experiments. All the experiments have already been done in the 1,000,000 provided experiments. I’ve just left out the fifth trial from these experiments.
This is almost the same question as, “If we do experiment 1000001 and see k Rs in the first four trials, then what credence do you assign to the 5th trial being R,” but not quite. Your goal is to predict the marginals frequencies for the experiments I have actually conducted, not any idealized “next experiment”. Because 1,000,000 trials is so many, this should be close, but they are not quite the same. The actual marginal frequencies will have some noise, for example.
I hope this helps! If you need more explanation, feel free to ask.