Omega: So you would consider it more than fair if I offered you three dollars if the bead is red, and you paid me a dollar if it was non-red?
Me: No, because you have more information than I do, and the fact that you would offer this bet is evidence that I should use to update my epistemic probabilities.
Well, in the case of Omega, I would at least suspect that he intends to demonstrate that I am vulnerable to a Dutch book, even though he doesn’t need the money.
If you meet an Omega, that is pretty good evidence that you are living in a simulation: specifically, you are being simulated inside a philosopher’s brain as a thought experiment.
Me: No, because you have more information than I do, and the fact that you would offer this bet is evidence that I should use to update my epistemic probabilities.
Well, Omega doesn’t really need the money. There’s no reason to believe he would balk at offering you a more-than-fair bet.
Well, in the case of Omega, I would at least suspect that he intends to demonstrate that I am vulnerable to a Dutch book, even though he doesn’t need the money.
If you meet an Omega, that is pretty good evidence that you are living in a simulation: specifically, you are being simulated inside a philosopher’s brain as a thought experiment.