My interpretation is that it asks “Is it right or wrong, summed over all possible circumstances matching this description, weighted by probability, to pull the lever?” I.e. it asks for your prior, absent any context whatsoever, which is a valid question.
It sounds like you realize why this doesn’t work. If you sum over all possibilities then the philosophical question of deontology vs utilitarianism disappears. Instead, it’s a practical real-world question about actual trolleys that can be answered by examining actual trolley crash data.
Edit: On further reflection I think the usual interpretation is closer to “Is it better to follow a general policy, over all possible circumstances matching this description, to pull the lever or not?” I think this is closer to your interpretation but I don’t think it should produce a different answer to mine.
This makes more sense. I argue that a “general policy” is meaningless when circumstances dominate so hard. You argue that a general policy is still meaningful. I agree that a general policy is the right way to interpret some ethical questions…depending on the context.
(This is still a false dichotomy—there’s also the option of “pull the lever equally as often as not”, but I’ve never heard of anyone genuinely apathetic about the trolley problem.)
It sounds like you realize why this doesn’t work. If you sum over all possibilities then the philosophical question of deontology vs utilitarianism disappears. Instead, it’s a practical real-world question about actual trolleys that can be answered by examining actual trolley crash data.
This makes more sense. I argue that a “general policy” is meaningless when circumstances dominate so hard. You argue that a general policy is still meaningful. I agree that a general policy is the right way to interpret some ethical questions…depending on the context.
I like this answer. It’s delectably unsatisfying.