So what does it mean about the AI race and the harm to the AI companies caused by Trump’s decisions? My quick take about the AI-2027 scenario shows that the modifiers will need to reconsider the forecasts related to compute available, timelines when the superhuman coder will be invented and the security forecast. Unfortunately, I lack the data necessary to understand how the timelines of creating superhuman coders will be affected and the understanding of American politics. I would guess that even the wargame is to be reconsidered in order to account for changes related to compute, to human geniuses and to the difficulty of creating factories at home...
Arguably the worst-case scenarios would be the USA having dumb researchers, but more compute than China, rushing into the intelligence explosion, forcing China to race and misaligning both the American AI (stolen from China or invented later and doing automated research faster) and the Chinese AI as a result of the race. Or China being far closer to the USA in terms of compute and stealing the American supercoder.
So, if there was no crisis in the USA or if China was the monopolist in the AI race, then mankind’s chances of survival would be far from zero, but a special set of circumstances could arguably nullify them.
So what does it mean about the AI race and the harm to the AI companies caused by Trump’s decisions? My quick take about the AI-2027 scenario shows that the modifiers will need to reconsider the forecasts related to compute available, timelines when the superhuman coder will be invented and the security forecast. Unfortunately, I lack the data necessary to understand how the timelines of creating superhuman coders will be affected and the understanding of American politics. I would guess that even the wargame is to be reconsidered in order to account for changes related to compute, to human geniuses and to the difficulty of creating factories at home...
Arguably the worst-case scenarios would be the USA having dumb researchers, but more compute than China, rushing into the intelligence explosion, forcing China to race and misaligning both the American AI (stolen from China or invented later and doing automated research faster) and the Chinese AI as a result of the race. Or China being far closer to the USA in terms of compute and stealing the American supercoder.
So, if there was no crisis in the USA or if China was the monopolist in the AI race, then mankind’s chances of survival would be far from zero, but a special set of circumstances could arguably nullify them.